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Contrarian investing--what it is, how it works, and why millions of successful investors see it as the only logical choice
"(Davis is) one of the most widely respected technical market analysts operating today."
--Louis Rukeyser
Contrarians say that, when it comes to investing, the crowd is wrong more often than it is right--and prove it with their 200-year history of success! The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a fascinating, in depth examination of the impact of crowd psychology on markets, how the crowd is often predictably incorrect, and how investors can use long-proven contrarian investing strategies to uncover tremendous buying and selling opportunities.
Ned Davis, one of today's biggest names in investing, reveals:
- How to ignore the temptation to "join the crowd" and uncover tremendous opportunities
- Consistent signs that a stock's price has been driven too high or too low
- Strategies for protecting contrarian portfolios when--as sometimes happens--the crowd is right
- Sales Rank: #1621372 in eBooks
- Published on: 2003-11-25
- Released on: 2003-11-25
- Format: Kindle eBook
From the Back Cover
How Going Against the Crowd Can Dramatically Improve Your Investment Performance--With Charts and Numbers to Back It Up!
Praise for The Triumph of Contrarian Investing:
"Ned Davis adds to our understanding of contrarian behavior by taking his usual highly-disciplined quantitative approach to measuring investment behavior. This book will enable you to remain objective and effective no matter how intense the frenzy, excitement, or boredom becomes."
--Byron R. Wien, Managing Director and Senior Investment Strategist, Morgan Stanley
"Ned Davis is one of the greatest market historians of the past century."
--Louis Rukeyser, Host, "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street" (June 27, 2003)
"Ned Davis lays out the hard facts that will help you keep your head when others are losing theirs."
--Michael Sivy, Editor at Large, Money
"It took Ned Davis to sculpt a potent array of contrary opinion indicators which, taken together, are fully capable of reducing investment risks while significantly increasing investment returns."
--Paul Macrae Montgomery, Analyst, Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc.
"The Triumph of Contrarian Investing weaves together history, behavioral theory, market lore and time-tested sentiment indicators to help the investor act rationally when the crowd is either paralyzed with fear or overcome by greed and optimism."
--Jonathan R. Laing, Senior Editor, Barron's
"Most people fancy themselves contrarians. But there's a lot more to being contrary than doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing. The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a practical guide to going against the herd on the Street without getting trampled."--John Waggoner, Columnist, USA Today
"All the evidence in this book ... shows the crowd is almost always wrong at extremes ..."
--Ned Davis, From Chapter 1
It is one thing to say that the crowd is always wrong at extremes. It is quite another to provide convincing proof.
In The Triumph of Contrarian Investing, Ned Davis--one of today's most respected and influential market analysts--delivers both qualitative and quantitative proof that, when emotion is at its highest, the investing herd is almost certain to be running in the wrong direction. He then provides indicators to help you determine when crowd psychology is at an extreme, and outlines a disciplined approach for remaining fully and profitably invested in strong market environments while foreseeing and avoiding major market disasters.
This first-of-its-kind contrarian investor's rulebook will show you how to:
- Understand the powerful forces of crowd psychology and its historic and predictable impact on financial markets
- Quantify and analyze crowd sentiment to identify when that sentiment has gone too far--and is poised to reverse
- Ignore popular perceptions and your own emotions to sell during periods of extreme optimism and buy during extreme pessimism
Following the innovative and nontraditional approach that has always been a hallmark of Ned Davis Research, The Triumph of Contrarian Investing combines both qualitative and quantitative indicators into a successful contrarian strategy. Hundreds of charts and graphs reveal how and, more importantly, when contrarian investing principles have proven in past markets to be most successful. Only here will you learn:
- At what levels the market's price/earnings ratio, long considered a measure of valuation, can actually be an uncanny yardstick of investor expectations
- At what precise point the percentage of household financial assets held in stocks has reliably signaled market peaks and troughs
- How the inflow of money into various financial instruments can be confidently used to indicate imminent market turnarounds
In terms of human nature, nothing is more difficult than going against the crowd. In terms of investment performance, on the other hand, nothing is more profitable. Let Ned Davis's The Triumph of Contrarian Investing provide you with analysis and indicators proven to spotlight those points at which investor optimism or pessimism is at its strongest, then show you how to go against the grain--and profit--in virtually every instance.
About the Author
Ned Davis is one of today's most authoritative and respected voices in investing. He founded Ned Davis Research in 1980, and the company's focus on risk management, staying with the primary trend, and avoiding major disasters has made it among the world's largest and most influential financial research companies with more than 5,000 institutional clients.
Most helpful customer reviews
32 of 36 people found the following review helpful.
Only for a beginner
By Chicagotrader
First let me say, Ned Davis Research does excellent work. I was hoping to get some insight into the types of research his company uses. But I'm sorry to say I can not recomend this book to anyone but those completely unfamiliar with sentiment analysis. Only the basics are covered. Over half of the book is stock charts showing fundamental variables (I thought this was about sentiment?) and is a waste of space. He does say he is using these variables as a measure of investor sentiment but maybe they could have used a handful of charts as examples, not over half a book that is only 170 pages long.
12 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
Too simplistic
By M. P. Rassou
Buyer beware...the book is padded in large part by graphs and data. The actual chapters are short and can be covered in a day...This is a beginner's book with little insights...Professional stay away!
5 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
The Truth is in the Middle
By Jeff G.
I read this book and loved it. All of the other review/criticism seem to focus on the fact that it is too simplistic or too short. If you know that going in then you won't be disappointing like they were.
The charts are good resources. The 70 pages of charts illustrate one company stock chart per page. They give measure of price/dividend or price/sales ratios that indicate overly fearful and overly confident ranges. To this day, even though they are outdated, I refer to those ratios and ranges if I am doing due diligence on one of the stocks he has charted.
I loaded up on Budweiser in 2005-06, in part because of their overly fearful positioning (and of course dividend and positive attributes not included in this book). That trade was hugely successful for me and these charts and range analysis added to my confidence level. If NDR wrote an updated version of this with those companies and more, and their stock charts and overlyfearful/overly confident guages, I would buy the book just as a resource. It only takes one trade, one good call to have resources MORE THAN pay themselves. I keep this one reaching distance from my desk along with about 2 dozen others I consider worthwhile. Now that it is old I would really give it a 4 star rating, but I wanted to weight the average up because I thought all the one star ratings were incredibly extreme.
Buy it used or check it out from your local library, but don't let those negative reviews deprive you of seeing what nuggets you might find.
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